IEA published its 2025 report, which shows the oversupply of today and the strategic challenges of tomorrow, highly relevant to ENICON’s activities
The International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 highlights a paradox in the global nickel market: while the sector is currently oversupplied, longer-term threats loom over supply security.
According to the IEA, global nickel demand will nearly double by 2040, rising from 2.8 million tonnes in 2021 to around 5.7 million tonnes. Clean technologies, particularly electric vehicles, are expected to account for a growing share of this demand. However, supply is highly concentrated: by 2030, Indonesia is set to produce 67% of mined nickel, while China and Indonesia will dominate refining capacity. By 2040, the top three mining nations could control 84% of global output.
In the short term, Indonesian output has created an oversupply, pushing 2024 nickel prices nearly 30% below 2023 levels. Yet structural risks are emerging. Indonesia faces the depletion of high-grade reserves, has imposed a mining production quota of about 200 Mt, and introduced a moratorium on new rotary kiln electric furnace plants. These constraints, combined with growing demand for battery-grade nickel, underscore Europe’s exposure to future supply shocks.
This is where the Horizon Europe-funded ENICON project becomes highly relevant. ENICON is developing innovative extraction and processing methods for nickel and cobalt aimed at diversifying supply and reducing Europe’s reliance on imports from a handful of producer countries. By advancing more sustainable and efficient refining technologies, ENICON directly supports the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which sets targets for boosting domestic processing capacity.
As the IEA warns of growing concentration risks and long-term constraints on global nickel supply, initiatives like ENICON are vital to ensuring Europe’s strategic autonomy in critical raw materials. With demand surging and geopolitical vulnerabilities intensifying, Europe’s ability to innovate in nickel refining and recycling could prove decisive for the success of its green transition.
Download the full report here.